摘要
人民币汇率制度改革是否在一定程度上已经改善了人民币汇率的失调程度?为此,本文首先构建人民币实际均衡汇率模型,然后对人民币实际汇率的失调程度进行测算。研究结果显示,汇改之前我国采取的严格管理的浮动汇率制度对调整实际汇率使之趋近于均衡汇率有较大的约束,由此造成汇率一定程度的失调,而2005年及2010年的汇改使得人民币汇率的失调状况慢慢得到缓解,为人民币汇率调整到均衡汇率附近提供了一个良好的基础。
Has the reform of RMB exchange rate system, to a certain extent, improved the RMB exchange rate misalignment degree.9 To answer this question will contribute to evaluate if the current RMB exchange rate system reform is successful or not, and to rise the next reform suggestions. Therefore, this paper firstly builds up the RMB equilibrium exchange rate model, and then measures and calculates the RMB real exchange rate misalignment degree. The results show that, the strictly--managed floating exchange rate system has greatly constrained the adjustment of the real exchange rate to converge to the equilibrium exchange rate, and to some extent, it results in the exchange rate disorder. But in 2005 and 2010 the reform of RMB exchange rate has gradually eased the misalignment situation. This provides a good basis for RMB exchange rate adjustment reaching to near equilibrium rate.
关键词
汇率制度
人民币汇率
均衡汇率
汇率失调
汇率改革
exchange rate system
RMB exchange rate
equilibrium exchange rate
misalignment of exchange rate
exchange rate reform
