摘要
本文以"基于关键信息的非常规突发事件预警模型研究"为题,以关键信息为出发点,考虑到非常规突发事件发展演化路径的非线性、信息的不完整性、无规律性以及指标设计难以量化等特点,通过文献的梳理与实际调研,设计出科学的预警指标体系,并综合运用基于DEMATEL的多层次模糊综合评价法与态势分析法,提出针对突发事件的定性定量的综合型预警模型,对非常规突发事件进行预警具有一定的指导意义。
This paper, titled as ＂research on early-warning model of unconventional emergencies based on key information＂, uses the key information as a point of departure, schemes out a scientific early-warning index system by literature reviewing and practical research and study, in consideration of the features of nonlinearity, imperfection of information, irregularity as well as the difficulty of quantifying index design of the developing evolutional path of unconventional emergencies; and develops a qualitative and quantitative integrated early-warning model aiming at emergencies by comprehensive use of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods based on DEMATEL and situational analysis method, which has a certain guiding significance to an effective early-warning on unconventional emergencies.
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第10期166-176,共11页
Management Review
基金
中央高校基础科研项目(ZYGX2011J115
ZYGX2010J155)
教育部人文社科基金项目(10XJC630012)
关键词
关键信息
DEMATEL
多层次模糊综合评价
态势分析
预警
key information, DEMATEL, multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, situational analysis, early-warning
