摘要
在总结有关近岸海浪预测研究成果基础上,根据极值分布理论选取Gumbel分布作为计算模型。根据近岸黄海海洋观测站26a的海浪观测资料,采用按方向和月份统计海浪的最大波高数据,充分考虑海浪方向和海浪灾害发生时间,形成最大波高的十六个方向年极值序列样本和12个月份的月极值序列样本;最后运用Gumbel分布模型计算得到不同方向和各个月份的极值波高预测结果,分析出近岸黄海海域灾害性海浪发生的时间规律和致灾方向,对该近岸黄海海域灾害性海浪预防和减灾提出合理对策。
In this paper, existing research results of offshore disastrous sea wave prediction are summarized firstly. According to extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution model was reasonably selected for predicting extreme wave heights. Then, a statistical analysis was made for the practical measured wave data of 26 years and the data were processed under sixteen directions and twelve months. Projection method was used to process every direction data. Annual Maximum Samples andMonthly Maximum Samples were formed for sixteen directions under full account of directions and the impact of adjacent directions. Finally, the predicted results of every direction were obtained, which were calculated by model. Upon the comparison with the results from current code, the proposed solution can obtain the time and directions of the wind disasters, and put forward reasonable proposals on preventing offshore wind disasters.
出处
《中国渔业经济》
2012年第5期85-90,共6页
Chinese Fisheries Economics
基金
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金博导类资助课题(课题编号:20110132110015)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地海洋发展研究院自设项目(课题编号:2012JDZS03)
中国海洋发展研究中心科研项目(课题编号:AOCOUC20120)等资助
关键词
极值波高预测
方向
极值分布
预防建议
近岸黄海
extreme wave heights prediction
direction
extreme value distribution
disasterprevention suggestions
Yellow Sea Nearshore Area
