摘要
鉴于科学的需水量预测是水资源合理配置的重要依据,基于围场县2006～2010年城镇生活用水量的统计资料,利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对实际用水量进行了模拟分析,模拟结果与实际用水量的平均误差为1.53%。灰色预测GM(1,1)模型适用于围场县城镇生活需水量的预测,进而预测了围场县不同期限(短期、中期、长期)的城镇生活需水量。通过一次供需平衡分析明确了未来水资源的供需矛盾,提出了城镇生活用水高效利用对策,可在一定程度上缓解城镇生活用水的供需矛盾。
The scientific water demand forecast is an important basis for water resources planning. Based on the urban domestic water consumption statistics in Weichang from 2006 to 2010, GM（1,1） model is applied to simulate water demand. The average error between simulation results and actual water consumption is 1.53 %. It is proved that GM（1,1） model is suitable for prediction of urban domestic water demand. And then the urban domestic water demand in Weichang is predicted under different period （short-term, middle-term, long-term）. In terms of the balance between the supply and demand of water resources, water shortage has begun to appear in future. Effective measures has been taken to improve water use efficiency, which can alleviate the conflict of water supply and demand in some degree.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第9期40-42,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目(201001030)
河海大学自然科学基金资助项目(2009423211)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2009B05914)
