摘要
针对GM(1,1)模型的不足,引入非线性增长模型——Richards模型预测物流需求量,通过分析指出Richards模型不仅具有S形态特征,也具有非线性增长形态,根据模型性质,给出了Richards模型具体建模方法以及参数求解办法,基于不同实例应用结果显示,Richards模型预测精度明显高于GM(1,1)模型,更能准确的描述物流需求量的非线性增长趋势。
Aiming to the disadvantages of GM（1,1）model,one kind of non-linear growth model,Richards＇model,is proposed to the logistics demand forecasting.Through the analysis,Richards＇model has the advantages of S morphology and non-linear growth.According to these advantages,the modeling and parameter estimation approach are proposed in this paper.The experimental results suggest that Richards＇model is better than the GM（1,1） model.
出处
《科技管理研究》
北大核心
2011年第20期206-208,共3页
Science and Technology Management Research
