摘要
在原有Logistic模型的基础上,增加两个影响模型曲线曲率的参数,得到新的改进Logistic模型。为克服采用常规的优化方法求解模型参数难的问题,采用先进的直接搜索算法——模式搜索法进行模型参数的优化求解,并用Logistic模型和改进的Logistic模型描述中国历年石油消费量数据。结果表明:与原有的Logistic模型相比,改进的Logistic模型描述精度要高得多;基于拟合后改进的Logistic模型预测的中国未来石油消费量可为中国未来石油规划提供可靠的基础数据支持。
Based on the Logistic model,a new modified Logistic model was developed by adding two curvature parameters.In general,the new model cant be analytically solved.It is difficult to estimate the model parameters by using some conventional optimization methods.Pattern search method,which is an advanced direct search method,was proposed to determine the parameter values of the new model.The Logistic model and its modification were applied to describe the evolution of petroleum consumption in China.The results show that the new modified Logistic model has performed better than the Logistic model.Based on the fitted modified Logistic model,the forecasted future values of petroleum consumption in China were obtained,which are very important for the future petroleum plan in China.
出处
《中国石油大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期177-181,共5页
Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50806048)
