摘要
农作物秸秆可收集量的预测是进行能源规划、大规模开发利用资源的基础。试验在综合2006~2010年发表的原创性研究文献的基础上,确定了草谷比和可收集系数,从而估算出1990~2009年黑龙江省农作物秸秆可收集量。用灰色关联分析方法分析黑龙江省农作物秸秆可收集量的影响因素,通过计算各因素关联度大小。结果表明,农村劳动力、农作物播种面积、农业机械总动力和农用化肥施用量是影响农作物秸秆可收集量的主要因素。比较了GM（1,1）模型预测和基于GM（1,1）的多元回归模型预测两种预测方法的模型模拟精度,结果表明,基于GM（1,1）的多元回归模型预测高于GM（1,1）模型的精度。并预测了2010~2015年黑龙江省农作物秸秆可收集量。
Prediction of Collectable Amounts of Straw Resource is the foundation of energy planning and large-scale development and utilization of resources.First of all,Collectable Amounts of Straw Resource in 1990-2009 is estimated on the basis of residue to grain ratio and collection efficiency combined a variety of references published in 2006-2010.Then,gray relational analysis gave factors of the amount of crop straw.The results show that rural labor,crop acreage,the total power of Agriculture machinery and Consumption of agricultural Chemical Fertilizers are the main factors of the amount of crop straw can be collected.Finally,the comparision of accuracy of simulation of GM（1,1） forecasts and multiple regression models forecasting based on GM（1,1） prediction model show that prediction accuracy of multivariate regression model is higher than GM（1,1） prediction.The paper also predicts the amount of crop straw can be collected in 2010-2015 in Heilongjiang Province.
出处
《东北农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第8期123-130,共8页
Journal of Northeast Agricultural University
基金
国家科技支撑项目(2008BADC4B17)
关键词
农作物秸秆
可收集量
灰色关联分析
灰色预测
crop straw
collectable amount
grey relational analysis
grey forecast
