摘要
改革开放以来我国出现了5个经济周期,它们均属于增长性经济周期。随着我国经济市场化程度的提高,政府宏观调控能力的增强,我国经济周期波动持续时间大大延长,经济增长受外生性冲击打断的可能性大大降低。但随着我国国际贸易依赖程度的不断提高,我国与全球经济波动的联动性也呈现加强态势。此外,我们从4个方面探讨了经济周期波动的原因,发现投资、消费、进出口、政府收支增长率的波动幅度均大于GDP增长率的波动幅度,但其总体波动趋势一致。从改革开放以来整个时期来看,不仅投资、消费、进出口、政府收支增长的波动会引起GDP增长的波动,后者的波动也会影响到前者的波动。但在不同的历史时期,这种互动关系存在差异。
There have been five business cycles in China since reforming and opening, all of which are growth-oriented. With the improvement of marketization and the increase of government＇ s macro-control capacity, the duration in volatility of the business cycle has been greatly prolonged, and the probability of interruption in growth with exogenous shocks has been obviously lowered. However, with higher and higher degree of dependence upon foreign trade, the co-movement in economic volatility between China and the rest of the world is also strengthened. Furthermore, we explore the reasons for the business fluctuation from four different points, and find out that the fluctuation ranges of the growth rate of investment, consumption, import, export, public income and expenditure are all higher than that of GDP, and that the trends for them in wave ranges are consistent. Since reforming and opening, there has been interaction among investment, consumption, import, export, public income and expenditure, and GDP.
出处
《晋阳学刊》
CSSCI
2011年第4期42-46,共5页
Academic Journal of Jinyang
关键词
改革开放
经济周期波动
差异分析
原因探析
Reforming and Opening
Businegs fluctuation
Variance analysis
Reason analysis
