摘要
地震发生以后及时掌握人员伤亡情况对灾后救援具有重要作用,因此,建立地震人员伤亡预测模型是极为重要的。以2008年汶川地震人员伤亡数据及房屋破坏面积数据为基础,运用线性回归分析方法模拟出地震人员伤亡预测模型。该函数模型是以建筑物的易损性为自变量,分别以死亡人数、受伤人数为因变量构建的。同时对回归模型进行误差分析,并参考前人模型可知房屋内人口密度和地震发生时间2个因素对模型有很大影响,进而对回归系数进行调整。最后利用文中模型和其他几种预测模型分别对汶川地震和玉树地震进行验证,并与地震实际伤亡结果进行比较,证明研究的模型的准确性和适用性。
Timely knowing earthquake casualty is of great importance to emergency rescue,so building forecasting model for earthquake casualties is necessary.Based on the data of casualties and the number of destroyed houses in Wenchuan Earthquake,the linear regression analysis method is applied to build earthquake casualty forecasting model,in which the building＇s vulnerability is the independent variable,and the number of death and the number of injury are the dependent variables,respectively.Meanwhile,error analysis for the model is conducted,and the regression factor is adjusted according to the influence of population density in houses and occurrence time of the earthquake on the model.Finally,the proposed model and other forecasting model are used to forecast the casualties in Wenchuan Earthquake and Yushu Earthquake,respectively.The obtained casualties are almost in accord with the actual casualties,which illustrates the applicability of the proposed model.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期59-64,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
7级以上地震
人员伤亡
预测模型
建筑物易损性
线性回归分析
earthquakes with a magnitude of above 7
casualty
forecasting model
vulnerability of building
linear regression analysis
