摘要
汶川地震过去3a了。3a来,大量的国内外学者对地震灾区地震地质灾害的发育分布规律、形成机理及防治对策给予了高度关注,发表了大量的研究成果。人们在关注同震地质灾害的同时,更对地震灾区今后地质灾害的发生规律及演化趋势、持续时间倾注了极大的关心,因为震后连续3a,尤其是2010年,灾区地质灾害的频率和规模均出现较震前显著增大的现象。本文收集整理了震前和震后灾区地质灾害的数据资料,尤其研究了震后3a灾区重大地质灾害的特点和发生规律,在此基础上,分析了震后灾区地质灾害可能的持续时间、演化趋势以及高风险区的范围。分析和研究结果认为,震后汶川地震灾区的地质灾害将持续20~25a;在这段时间内,地质灾害将以4~5a一个高峰为周期,呈震荡式的衰减下降,并最终恢复到震前的水平。震后地质灾害的高风险区将出现在耿达-映秀、小鱼洞、红白-茶坪、擂鼓-陈家坝和青川东河口-窝前这5个地段上。
It was 3 years since the Wenchuan earthquake.A lot of domestic and foreign scholars have conducted a great deal of work on the development and distribution patterns,formation mechanisms and prevention strategies of the geohazards triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake,and have published a lot of research results.Since the frequency and scale of increased markedly,especially in 2010,many researchers are beginning to pay close attention to the occurrence rules,activity trends and duration of geohazards triggered by rainfalls after the Wenchuan earthquake.This paper collected the data pre-and post-earthquake,and analyzed the characteristics and occurrence rules of major geohazards triggered by rainfalls in the last 3years in the Wenchuan earthquake area.Based on this,the duration,activity trends and high risk areas of geohzards in the Wenchuan earthquake areas were analyzed.The preliminary study results indicate geohazard activity in theWenchuan erathquake area will keep still intense in future 20-25 years.In this period of time,geohazard activity level appeared to decline in shock with the cycle of every four or five years.After that,the geological condition will be gradually stable.The high geohazards risk areas will be mainly distributed along the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault,especially in the sections of Genda-Yingxiu in Wenchuan county,Xiaoyudong in Pengzhou county,Hongbai,Shifang county-Chaping,Anxian county,Leigu-Chenjiaba in Beichuan county and Donghekou-Woqian in Qingchuan county.
出处
《工程地质学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期145-151,共7页
Journal of Engineering Geology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划课题"强震作用下斜坡失稳破坏机理与分布规律"(2008CB425801)
关键词
后效应
汶川地震
地质灾害
活动性
发展趋势
After effect
Wenchuan earthquake
Geohazard
Activity
Development tendency
