摘要
本文利用上海经济的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,对影响区域经济增长和宏观及产业税负的生产要素、对外经济开放相关因素进行了模拟,计算和分析了税负的变动。分析发现,在名义税率和征税强度保持不变的情况下,要控制宏观税负的过快增长,需要增加生产要素的供给,而最有效的是提高全要素生产率。上海经济高度依赖国际市场和国内其他地区市场,因此,进出口增长和调出增长等对外经济行为不仅不能更多地拉动GDP的增长,反而导致宏观税负和其他各项税收税负的提高。
This paper utilizes the CGE model of the economy of Shanghai to simulate the production factors and the factors related to overseas economy that influence the regional economic growth, macroscopic tax burden and industrial tax burden, and computes and analyzes the change of tax burden. According to the analysis, if the nominal tax rate and the intensity of taxation stay constant, in order to control the growth of macroscopic tax burden, it is necessary to increase the supply of production factors ; it is most efficient to raise the TFP. The economy of Shanghai is highly dependent on the international market and the other domestic regional markets. As a result, the increase in export, import and in outflow, leads to the increase in macroscopic tax burden and other tax items, instead of bringing up GDP.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期24-35,46,共13页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
关键词
宏观税负
产业税负
CGE模型
Macroscopic Tax Burden, Industrial Tax Burden, CGE Model
