摘要
介绍了社会科学中三种工具在应对自然灾害时制定理性、整体的防御措施过程中不同阶段的具体应用。文章采用社会判断理论来确定安全指标;然后通过泰勒罗素图选择安全指标的合适阀值;通过系统动力学模型模拟对意外事件做出反应且进行调整的政策环境;最后将这三种工具应用于在面对即将来临的冰冻自然灾害时是否需要转移的决策过程,并分析其应用于其他自然灾害的决策过程的可能性。
The applications of three social science tools in dealing with natural disasters are introduced to provide rational and whole support in different phases.This paper first creates safety indexes with social judgment theory,then chooses safety index threshold with Taylor-Russell diagram,and finally simulates the policy execution with system dynamics models.The three tools are also applied to deciding whether a transferring is necessary when faced with the icing weather.The possibility to reduce loss from other natural disasters by the applications of the tools is analyzed as well.
出处
《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第6期49-52,共4页
Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)
关键词
社会判断理论
泰勒罗素图
系统动力学模型
social-judgment theory
Taylor-Russell diagram
system dynamics model
