摘要
介绍了单整自回归移动平均模型(antoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)及其建模思路,并结合Eviews软件将ARIMA模型应用于成都市年用电量的分析与预测。经检验此模型预测精度较高,拟合效果理想,体现了应用ARIMA模型进行用电量预测的可行性,可以为电力系统工作人员进行年用电量预测提供参考。
This paper briefly presented the principles and methods of ARIMA（auto regression moving average）model and applied the model to the analysis and forcasting of electricity demand of Chendu city.Upon examination it is further proved that ARIMA has high prediction accuracy and provides ideal forecast effect.It＇s feasible to use ARIMA model to forecast electricity demand.The model provides reference for power system staff to forecast.
出处
《电力需求侧管理》
2010年第6期31-34,共4页
Power Demand Side Management
关键词
ARIMA
用电量预测
偏相关函数
自相关函数
ARIMA
electricity demand forcast
partial autocorrelation function
autocorrelation function
