摘要
本文利用中国银行业1986—2008年数据从整体层面和银行层面考察了我国银行业非利息收入增长与银行风险的关系。从整体层面分析结果看,非利息收入增长具有一定的风险分散化效应。但是,由于非利息收入相比于净利息收入具有较高的波动性和明显的周期性,随着非利息收入比重的增加,这种分散化所带来的边际收益在逐步减少。从银行层面分析结果看,净利息收入增长率与非利息收入增长率的相关系数在考察期内多为负值,同样表明非利息收入增长具有一定的风险分散化效应。但是,进一步的模型分析显示非利息收入增长对我国银行业收益和风险的影响在统计上并不显著。总体上,我们的研究表明,非利息收入增长对我国银行业具有一定的风险分散化效应,但是更多地依赖非利息收入存在着恶化风险与收益之间权衡关系的可能性。
This paper assesses potential diversification benefits about the increasing reliance on nontraditional business activities based on the Chinese banking industry data from 1986--2008. At the aggregate level, there are diversification benefits from the increasing noninterest income. But noninterest income has higher volatility and cyclicality than net interest income, and the marginal benefit of diversification is reducing with the increase of noninterest income. At the bank level, the correlation coefficients of growth rates of net interest income and noninterest income are most negative which also suggest that there are diversification benefits from the increasing noninterest income. But, further model analysis indicates that the effect of noninterest income share on Chinese banking industry revenue and risk is not significant. Overall, our findings suggest that noninterest income diversifies bank revenue, but more reliance on noninterest income may worsen the risk/return trade-off for Chinese banking industry.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期69-91,共23页
Nankai Economic Studies
关键词
净利息收入
非利息收入
收入分散化
银行风险
Net Interest Income
Noninterest Income
Income Diversification
Bank Risk
