摘要
本文基于资产需求理论对我国货币运行中的现金漏损率进行实证研究,得出如下结论:(1)改革开放以来,我国现金漏损率变化呈现先上升后下降的阶段性特征,同时存在明显的季节性波动规律,而周期性走势表现不明显;(2)我国现金漏损率变动的原因呈现出阶段性差异,在改革开放初期阶段,现金漏损率不断上升主要归因于物价上涨因素,而在深化阶段,现金漏损率的逐渐下降则主要是我国经济的持续增长与金融改革的不断深化造成的。据此本文建议,国家在实施货币政策时应考虑到微观经济主体经济行为对货币乘数及货币供应量的影响,尤其在调整利率时需重视现金漏损率的相关影响。
Based on the theory of asset demand, this paper carries on a detailed empirical research of cash leakage rate in China＇s currency movement. The study suggests ： （ 1 ） Since reform and opening up, the cash leakage rate shows a stage characteristic which first rises, then drops, it also demonstrates an obvious seasonal fluctuation rule but no obvious periodic trend finds ; （ 2 ） The reasons for change of it present class differences ： In the reform and opening initial period, mainly attributed to the price rising factor which causes the cash leakage rate to rise unceasingly, while during the deepening stage, continuously decreased rate is mainly due to sustainable economic growth and deepening financial reform; Future continuous economic development ,gradual declined deposit interest rate and progressive decreasing saving propensity will together urge China＇s cash leakage rate to further decrease. Therefore, when implementing the monetary policy, the country should consider the influence of microscopic economic subjects＇economic activities towards the monetary multiplier and the money supply, especially when ad- justing interest rate, it must value the related influence of the rate.
出处
《南京财经大学学报》
2010年第4期40-46,86,共8页
Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
关键词
现金漏损率
货币乘数
资产需求理论
实证研究
Cash Leakage Rate
Theory of Asset Demand
Monetary Multiplier
Empirical research
