摘要
汇率是影响进出口贸易的要素之一,在当前人民币汇率升值的背景下,研究人民币汇率变化对中国进出口贸易的影响非常必要。文章依据1995年第4季度-2009年第4季度的季度数据,利用Engle-Granger两步法分析了人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响。研究的结果表明,在长期内,中国的出口贸易受国外需求和实际有效汇率波动的影响,对于汇率水平的变化不敏感,中国的进口贸易在长期内主要受国内收入和人民币实际有效汇率水平的影响。在短期,只有进口贸易和人民币实际有效汇率存在着负相关关系。
Exchange rate is one of the elements affecting the import and export trade, and in the context of RMB appreciation, to study the effect of change of RMB exchange rate on Chinese import and export trade is very important. Based on Q4 1995 to Q4 2009 quarterly data, this paper uses Engle-Granger two-step analysis to study the impact of change of real effective exchange rate of RMB on Chinese import and export trade. Studies suggest that, during the long term, China＇ s export trade not only have been influenced by foreign demand and real effective exchange rate fluc- tuations, but also insensitive to the change of exchange rate; China＇ s import trade in the long term has been influenced by domestic income and the RMB real effective exchange rate. In the short term, negative correlation only exists between import trade and real effective exchange rate.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第9期117-122,共6页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家自然基金项目<基于绩效评价的我国高新技术产业开发区公共治理研究>(项目编号:70873113)资助
关键词
人民币
汇率变动
中国进出口贸易
RMB
Exchange rate variability
Import and export of Chinese trade
