摘要
气候变化和二氧化碳减排问题已经引起了世界性的关注。文章对我国30个省份二氧化碳排放量进行测算,将其分为低排放、中排放、高排放三个不同区域并进行比较。同时,基于STIRPAT模型和面板数据方法,文章分析了人口、经济和技术对不同区域二氧化碳排放的影响。结果表明:三个区域的二氧化碳排放存在明显差异,并且差异性不断扩大;不同区域人口、经济、技术对二氧化碳排放量的弹性系数是不一样的,经济快速增长是各区域二氧化碳排放增加最重要的驱动因素;二氧化碳排放与经济增长之间存在明显的倒"U"型环境库兹涅茨曲线,但是要达到曲线的拐点需要经历非常漫长的时间。另外,中国的二氧化碳排放表现出明显的路径依赖现象,当期经济增长将至少对未来2-3年的空气质量产生影响,并且这种影响对整个国家来说比单个区域要更大。基于上述,提出了减少二氧化碳排放的相关政策建议,以适应中国的低碳经济道路。
Climate change and carbon dioxide emissions have attracted worldwide attention. So, this article calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of China＇ s 30 provinces, and the 30 provinces can be. divided into low-emission regions, middle-emission regions and high-emission regions. Based on STIRPAT model and panel data methodology., this article analyzes the relationship of the carbon dioxide emissions and China＇ s population, economy and technology in different regions. The results showed that the differences of carbon dioxide emissions in different regions are obvious and they have an expanding trend. The elasticity of the all factors is not same in different regions, and the economic growth is the most important driver of carbon dioxide emissions in different regions.The ＂U＂-type Kuznets curve relationship exists between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth, but it needs a very long time to achieve the inflexian of the curve. In addition, China＇ s carbon dioxide emissions show an obvious phenomenon of path dependence. The current period of economic growth will impact the air quality of next 2 - 3 years at least, and the impact on the whole country is greater than that on a single region. Based on the above findings, this article gives some suggestions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in order to adapt to the road of China＇s low-carbon economy.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期22-27,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:70873058)
关键词
二氧化碳排放
区域差异
影响因素
面板数据模型
carbon dioxide emissions
regions difference
influence factors
panel data model
