摘要
气象条件是影响农作物病虫害的主要因子,且与作物的发育期密切相关,特别是在特殊年份,如果模型所筛选的因子中较常年有明显的改变,预测结果与实际结果相差较大,因此各预测模型都具有一定的局限性。为提高数理统计预报的实用性,需要采用多年的历史资料,同时在实际工作中应采用尽量多的方法进行预测,以最大限度地获得较高的预测准确率。以山西冬小麦的主要病虫害(白粉病、条锈病、麦蜘蛛)为研究对象,研究其发生流行的气象条件预报指标,并建立山西省冬小麦主要病虫害发生的气象条件预测模型,进行山西省冬小麦主要病虫害发生的气象条件预测。通过历史资料进行回测验证,历史拟合准确率达到90%以上,说明应用该方法所建模型在一般年份可以进行冬小麦条锈病、白粉病、麦蜘蛛的预测。
Meteorological conditions were the main influence factors of pests and diseases of winter wheat, and were closely related to the developmental stages of crops. Especially in the special year, if the influence factors selected by model had more obvious changes than normal years, the differences between the forecast results and the actual results was big, so the forecast model had some limitations. In order to enhance the practicality of forecasting mathematical statistics, historical data for many years should be used and predict methods should be used as many as possible in practice to access to higher forecast accuracy rate. In this paper, the meteorological conditions forecast index of the main pests and diseases of winter wheat （powdery mildew, stripe rust, wheat spider） were analyzed, the meteorological degree forecast model of the main pests and diseases of winter wheat was set up. Through the back testing with the historical data, the rate of backtracking and fitting for the forecast model was above 90%. In a word, the model set up by this method was applied to do the meteorological forecast of the main pests and diseases （stripe rust, powdery mildew, wheat spider） of winter wheat in general years in Shanxi.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第11期267-271,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
山西省气象局开放基金项目"山西省主要农作物病虫害气象条件预报服务系统"(Sx072001)
北京区域气象中心科技创新基金项目"北京区域农业主要病虫害气象等级预报研究"(BRMCCJ200709)共同资助
关键词
山西省
冬小麦
病虫害
气象条件
预报模型
Shanxi province
winter wheat
insect pests and diseases
meteorological conditions
forecast model
