摘要
探讨项目复杂性与项目风险的关系并证明了项目的组织结构复杂性是项目的风险来源。以项目组织结构的复杂性作为项目内部风险的衡量标准,建立了基于组织结构复杂性并考虑规模因素的项目风险评估模型。分析了项目组合中通常存在的项目间的相互关系以及每一种相互关系对项目组合整体风险的影响。利用Logistic映射对协作型项目组合建立了项目组织结构复杂性风险的扩散模型,以定量刻画项目组织结构复杂性风险在项目组合中的扩散机制。最后对模型进行了仿真并根据仿真结果给出了降低项目组合风险的策略。
Hierarchy complexity is proved be a source of project risk in order to recognize project risk objectively after the relationship between project risk and hierarchy complexity is discussed. A new risk evaluation model is proposed, in which the hierarchy complexity is used as the criterion and project scale is considered. To investigate risk diffusion mechanism of individual project in project portfolio, mutual effects among projects and classification of project portfolio is analyzed. A model for cooperative project portfolio that quantitatively depicts its risk diffusion mechanism with logistic mapping is proposed. Strategies for reducing complexity risk of cooperative project portfolio were put forward after a case study about the diffusion model.
出处
《价值工程》
2010年第8期84-87,共4页
Value Engineering
基金
南昌航空大学科研基金项目(EC200909240)
关键词
项目
项目组合
复杂性
风险
project
project portfolio
complexity
risk
