摘要
In order to grasp the development path of the Jiangsu construction industry, a multivariable linear regression model for forecasting is proposed. Five factors affecting development of the Jiangsu construction industry are chosen as explanatory variables. They are the construction industry＇s fixed assets K, the gross domestic product （GDP）, real estate added value （REAV）, construction industry export （WS）and investment in construction and installation projects（JA）. The principal component analysis is used to resolve multicollinearity between them. The construction added value （CAV） is chosen as a dependant variable, and the growth model of the Jiangsu construction industry is established. Statistical data from 1990 to 2008 are used to test the prediction accuracy of the model. The predictive results show that from 2009 to 2012, the average annual growth rate of the Jiangsu construction industry added value will be 17. 65% while the GDP growth rate will be 14. 16% . the Jiangsu construction industry will grow faster than the GDP in the near future. The construction output of the GDP continues to rise, and its pillar position will be further strengthened.
为了把握江苏省建筑业的发展轨迹,提出了其增长预测的多元线性回归模型.选择影响江苏省建筑业增长的5个因素,即建筑业固定资产K、地区生产总值GDP、房地产增加值REAV、建筑业对外输出WS和建筑安装工程投资JA作为解释变量,使用主成分分析解决其多重共线性问题.再选定建筑业增加值lnCAV作为被解释变量,建立江苏省建筑业增长模型,并用1990 ～2008年的统计数据检验模型预测精度.预测结果表明:2009～2012年江苏建筑业增加值的平均增长率将为17.65%,同期GDP的增长率为14.16%,江苏省建筑业未来增速快于GDP增速.建筑业产值占GDP比重持续上升,其支柱地位将逐步加强.
基金
The Program of the Construction Department of Jiangsu Province(NoJS2007-17)
