摘要
基于改革开放后的河南铁路货物周转量时间序列数据,建立了退势模型。对其研究发现:存在1995年、1998年和2003年三个结构性断点,不同时期内波动特征差异较大。建立了分段线性模型,通过模拟和分析铁路货运量时间序列的历史波动和阶段性增长趋势,发现2003年至今的增速明显高于历史平均水平,并据此预测了未来的河南铁路运量。
Based on the time series data of railway cargo turnover in Henan since the reform and opening up, the paper suggests a withdrawal model. The study shows that there exist three structural break points in 1995, 1998, and 2003 respectively, so Piecewise Linear Model is put forward. By stimulating and analyzing the historical volatility and stages growth trends of railway cargo turnover, the paper concludes that the rapid growth rate from 2003 to now is obviously faster than the historical average. At the same time the future turnover is also forecasted.
出处
《洛阳理工学院学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第1期51-54,共4页
Journal of Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition
关键词
铁路运输
线性趋势
预测
河南
rail transport
liner trend
forecast
Henan
