摘要
针对当前应用降雨预报信息实施水库防洪预报优化调度的可能性问题，以丹江口水库流域为例，分析了48h降雨预报信息的可利用性，基于贝叶斯定理计算流域降雨预报漏报的风险，归纳出利用分级预报信息的防洪优化调度准则。结果表明，利用丹江口水库流域分级降雨预报信息风险小。当流域≤10mm量级降雨预报发生漏报时，因发生设计暴雨量的风险率远小于原设计频率值，故可用于指导水库优化调度；若发布10．1～25mm与≥25mm量级预报信息时，因其发生设计暴雨量的风险率趋近原设计频率值，则为确保水库上下游防洪安全，水库应按设计的防洪调度规则运行。
According to the research issue on the possibility of reservoir flood control forecast optimal operation based on the precipitation forecasting information, the availability of the precipitation forecasting information of Danjiangkou basin in 48 hours is analyzed firstly. Then Bayes theorem is adopted to calculate the risk of missing report on rainfall forecast in basin. Finally, based on the grading forecast information, the criterion of optimal flood control operation is given. The results show that the risk is low in terms of grading rainfall forecast information in Danjiangkou basin. When the rainfall forecast information which is less than 10mm is missing report, the risk rate is lower then the original design frequency. So it can be used to guiding the reservoir optimal operation. While it is between 10.1 mm and 25 mm or more than 25 mm, the reservoir should be operated with the design flood control dispatching rules in order to ensure flood control safety in the upper and down streams because the risk rate of design storm rainfall is approaching that of the design frequency.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2010年第1期6-8,126,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
"十一五"国家重大科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2006BAB04A07)
大连理工大学青年教师科研启动基金资助项目(893370)
关键词
丹江口水库
贝叶斯定理
降雨预报
漏报
风险分析
Danjiangkou Reservoir
Bayes theorem
rainfall forecasting
missing report
risk analysis
