摘要
本文运用投入产出价格影响模型,在能源价格不受管制和受管制两种情景下,模拟了能源价格上涨导致一般价格水平上涨的幅度。结果表明:在能源价格上涨可以完全和顺畅传导到一般价格水平的情景下,如果不考虑预期等因素对价格的影响,各类能源价格上涨导致一般价格水平上涨的幅度都比较小;价格管制对能源价格向一般价格水平的传导具有一定控制效果。基于递归的SVAR模型,发现能源价格上涨虽然在第1个月就会对PPI产生影响,但影响比较小,大致在滞后6个月会对PPI产生较明显影响;能源价格上涨对CPI的冲击非常弱,其传导到CPI上的滞后时间没有充分表现出来。
The impact mechanism of energy price on China＇ s general price level is one of the important issues needed to be studied in the process of reforming energy pricing mechanism. It is also important for the macroeconomic decision-making. This paper firstly applies input-output price impact model to simulate the variations of China＇ s general price level caused by energy price increases in two scenarios： （i） energy price is controlled by, and （ii） is not controlled by the government. The results show that even assuming the increases of energy prices could be transmitted completely and smoothly into the general price level, the energy price increase has relatively weak impact on the general price level, if the effect of price expectation is not considered. Price control does have certain impact on the passing-through of the energy price into the general price level. Further, based on the recursive SVAR model, this paper also investigates the time-lags between the energy price increases and the rises of general price level. The results indicate that the increase in energy price has little impact on PPI in the first month but will cause PPI to increase significantly after six months. Because of the weak impact on CPI, the lag time from energy price increase to CPI could not be fully displayed. However, the increase in PPI will have a persistent impact on CPI, after a five months lag.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第12期66-79,150,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
长江学者科研配套经费
国家自然科学基金(70841025)的支持
