摘要
利用湖南省早稻产量与发育期、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水量和日日照时数等资料及早稻生理气象指标,在丰歉气象影响指数动态预报方法的基础上,引进早稻生育期内对产量有较大影响的关键气象因子,建立了早稻产量综合动态预报方法。结果表明,该方法在早稻产量增减趋势预报和定量预报上,正(准)确率都有所提高。
In this paper, a comprehensive dynamical prediction method has been established for early rice. The method utilizes the data of early rice yield, development stage, daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, daily sunshine duration of Hunan province and the early rice physiological meteorological index. Based on the dynamical prediction method of meteorological influence index for bumper or poor harvest, the method introduces key meteorological factors of growth stage of early rice. The results indicate that the method has higher prediction accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend and the actual yield of early rice than former method.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2009年第4期8-12,共5页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
中国气象局业务建设项目"粮食(水稻)安全气象保障业务系统建设"资助
关键词
早稻
产量
影响指数
气象因子
预报方法
early rice
yield
influence index
meteorological factor
prediction method
