摘要
本文根据我国农业生产状况，将全国分为８个农业区，阐述了各区的主要农业灾害。而后根据粮食产量统计资料和粮食灾损量评估模型，估算了近４０年各区的粮食灾损量和全国粮食灾损量，并分析了我国粮食灾损量的时空分布状况。
Grain loss caused by natural disasters in China's eight agricultural regions during the period 1950￣1990 is estimated by the equation:Y d=Y t-1 +(〖AKy^] p-y t-1 )S t+y t(S t-S t-1 )-Y twhere Y d is the grain loss due to natural disasters, y t is grain production per ha in year t , S t is planting area in year t , Y t is the amount of production in year t , and 〖AKy^] p is calculated grain production per ha including 〖AKy^] t and y e as listed respectively in Tables 3 and 7. After the situations of agricultural production, irrigation, agricultural input and natural disasters are discussed, the estimated grain loss for the eight agricultural regions in 1950￣1990 is presented. The estimation shows that the average yearly grain loss due to natural disasters is 34 billion kg, or 11 6% of the yield. The time series for the percentage change is given in Figure 2, which shows a decreasing trend since the early 1960s. The regional patterns of the percentages of loss vary. Northeast China has had the most grain loss, followed by North China and then South China.
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第6期501-510,共10页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
中国科学院KZ951-B1-203-1项目
关键词
自然灾害
粮食灾损
评估
中国
产量
grain loss, natural disasters, regional pattern
