摘要
运用数学公式推导人类种群在"一夫一妻"基本制度下的总和生育率的"世纪更替"水平,或实现人口零增长的参数计算公式为TFR=1+S/100(S/100为性别比,当男女性别比为1∶1时TFR=2.0。当性别比因女少而严重失调时,TFR>2.0)。在对我国人口增长及总和生育率的变化进行分析研究后发现:实行了30a的计划生育政策取得巨大成就,奇迹般地将我国总和生育率从6.0左右迅速降下来。但是,近年来的总和生育率呈急剧下降趋势,目前全国TFR指标在1.8以下,有可能已经接近1.1。根据北京、上海的统计数据及人口普查分析,这两个地区的TFR已经小于1.0。根据建立的人口增长总和生育率(TFR)模型,按照目前提倡的TFR=1的指标,继续严格执行下去,300年内我国的人口将从现在的13亿急剧下降到398万人。
Total age-specific fertility rate（TAFR or TFR） records the total number of births that would occur per woman in a hypothetical group subject at each age to the rate of childbearing experienced in a given calendar year.In popularly speaking,TFR is the average number of children that each women will have during her lifetime.Present paper set up the mathematical calculation formula for TFR as ＂TFR=1＋S/100＂（S represents the sex ratio of men to women）.Based on the analysis of population growth and TFR change in China,we found that the TFR of China was less than 1.8,and there was a great possibility that the parameter was very nearly 1.1.In Beijing and Shanghai,it was already less than 1.0.This is a very dangerous signal for Chinese population developing tendency.In terms of the disciplinarian of ＂as the economic level promoted,the birth desire of women descended＂,and also the templates of ＂population atrophy＂ in France,Japan,Germany and Russia,it is time to set up the early warning alarm system.In addition,according to the TFR forecasting model of Chinese population that we set,the population number of our country would be 3.98 million in 300 years.There is a high possibility of extinguish of Chinese.＂Empty nest＂ in such a big country is not deliberately exaggerated so as to create a sensation.
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第8期4464-4474,共11页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
华南理工大学亚热带建筑教育部重点实验室开放基金资助项目(20070401)
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(974083)
国家社会科学基金"九五"重点资助项目(96AJB042)
关键词
人口
世纪更替水平
人口红利
生育欲望
数学模型
马尔萨斯陷阱
刘易斯转折点
population
level of Turn-of-the-Century
Total age-specific fertility rate（TFR）
demographic dividends
Birth desire of women of nationality
mathematical model
Malthus trap
Louis turning point
