摘要
基于我国1990-2005年时间序列数据,采用"两阶段"LMDI方法,先将能源消费产生的二氧化碳排放相关影响因素分解为产出规模、能源结构、排放强度和能源强度四个方面;再引入产出结构效应,对减少碳排放起关键作用的变量——能源强度进行再次分解。在此基础上,以产出规模和能源效率这两个对碳排放的增加和减少起关键作用的变量为依据,界定"高增长、高效率"、"低增长、低效率"、"低增长、高效率"和"高增长、低效率"四种不同的经济增长方式,划分出不同的时期,分析我国碳排放周期性波动的特征。研究表明,自上世纪90年以来,我国四个阶段不同经济增长方式的差异是碳排放波动的重要原因,特别是其中2000-2004年"高投入、高排放、低效率"的经济增长方式直接导致了碳排放的显著增加。因此,有效控制和减少碳排放的根本途径在于切实转变增长方式。
Adopting a two-stage LMDI model and 1990 to 2005 time series data of China, we divide the factors that influence the carbon dioxide emission coming from the energy consumption into four aspects, production scale, energy structure, carbon emission intensity, and energy, intensity. Then we add production structure effect to the model and decompose the driving factor --energy intensity, which has a pivotal effect to reduce the carbon emission. According to the scale of production and the efficiency of energy using, which plays a key role to increase or reduce the carbon emission, we define the following four economic growth modes, i.e. the ＂high growth with high efficiency＂, ＂low growth with low efficiency＂, ＂low gyowth with high efficiency＂, and ＂high growth with low efficiency＂. Based on the result above, we analyze the periodic fluctuating characters of carbon emission in China. The result shows the difference of economic growth mode in the four stages has been the root cause to the fluctuation of carbon emission from the 1990s; especially, the ＂high input, high emission and low efficiency＂ economic growth mode botween 2000 to 2004 has resulted in the rapid growth of the carbon emission. Thus we suggest that China should change the its economic growth mode to effectively control and reduce the carbon dioxide emission.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第3期18-24,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
湖北省社科基金资助(项目号[2007]021)
