摘要
对中国中、东部区域１月１．６～０．８ｍ平均地温垂直梯度距平场进行ＥＯＦ分析显示，地温垂直梯度距平场具有大尺度特征，并有孤立系统结构。在此基础上进一步研究了地温垂直梯度距平场与北半球大气环流之间的相互关系，结果表明，北半球大气环流异常与地温垂直梯度距平场异常是相互联系、相互维持的。通过对中国中、东部１．６～０．８ｍ地温垂直梯度距平场对中国东部汛期降水相关性的研究，并用中国中、东部１．６～０．８ｍ地温垂直梯度距平场对中国东部汛期降水做了预报及拟合和独立预报，初步显示，用地温垂直梯度距平场预测汛期降水是可行的。
Utilizing mean generating function as a basic function in this paper, we have been developed three prediction models: Gram-Schmidt orthogonal model, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model and optimun subset regression model. The precipitation in rainy season (June～August) in Kunming, Mid-Yunnan (including Kunming, Yuxi,Chuxiong) and Linzhi, Tibet, was fitted and predicted by three models. The fitting result is satisfactory, especially in case of extremes. The results of the precipitetion prediction with mean generating function model in plateau region has high accuracy, fitting accuracy is 97%～100% and actual forecasting accuracy is 60%～80%, the model has also multi-step prediction capacity.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第2期182-189,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
关键词
地温
梯度场
汛期
降水预报
时间系数
Mean generating function Orthogonality EOF Optimum subsetregression Precipitation prediction
