摘要
利用黄河中游地区三门峡至花园口区间(简称"三花间"区)21个气象站1955—2006年的气温和降水量资料,采用滑动平均、趋势分析、小波变换和Mann-Kendall等方法,探讨了黄河"三花间"区气温和降水量的年际和年代际变化特征。结果表明:(1)近50多年来"三花间"区年平均气温的年代际变化为1950年代后期至1980年代为偏冷期,1990年代之后气温明显升高,冷暖转折的突变点在1994年,2001年以来是近50多年来最暖的时期;年及冬、春、秋三季平均气温均呈上升趋势,尤以冬季增温开始最早,增温最明显。(2)降水量的年代际变化为1950年代后期至1960年代、2001年之后为多雨期,1970年代至1990年代为少雨期,其中以1990年代降水最少;各季降水量除冬季外均呈减少趋势,以夏季减少最明显。(3)黄河"三花间"区气候总体向暖干化方向发展,但2003年之后进入了多雨期,未来几年气候存在着向暖湿化变化的可能性。
By adopting the methods of moving average, trend analysis, wavelet transform and Mann-Kendall method, the characteristics of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes of precipita- tion and temperature in the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou （hereafter abbreviated to ＂San- huajian＂ area） in the middle reaches of Yellow River are analyzed with precipitation and tempera- ture data of 21 weather stations in this area from 1955 to 2006. The results are as follows：Firstly, the inter-decadal change of average temperature is getting warm in the recent 50 more years, the late 1950s to 1980s is a cold period, whereas after 1990s is a warm period, the transition from cold to warm occurred in 1994. The period from 2001 to now is the warmest;The annual and seasonal mean temperatures in winter, spring and autumn all show the trend of increasing, and occurrence of warming begins especially early and remarkably in winter. Secondly, The inter- decadal change of precipitation is that the late 1950s to 1960s and the years after 2001 are rainy periods, whereas 1970s to 1990s is a less rain period, and particularly, the precipitation in 1990s is the least;Seasonal precipitations all show the trend of decreasing except winter, and it decreases especially remarkably in summer. Thirdly, the main trend of climate change in ＂Sanhuajian＂ area is becoming warm and dry, but the fact that more precipitation appears after 2003 may indicates the possibility of warming and humidifying in the coming years.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期99-106,共8页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
河南省气象科学技术研究项目“气候变化对黄河中游三花间水资源影响研究”(z200607)
河南省科技攻关计划项目“气候变化和旱涝异常对河南水资源的影响”(072102320006)共同资助
关键词
气温
降水
年际变化
年代际趋势
temperature precipitation inter-annual change inter-decadal trend
