摘要
国家石油安全问题对国家经济发展和社会稳定具有重要意义,判断国家石油安全是否安全和今后走势成为石油安全研究领域的重要课题。鉴于石油安全的复杂性和评估指标的难以定量化,论文引入以层次分析法为基础、基于模糊综合评判原理的综合模式法,根据综合评估值将石油安全从高到低划分为5种状态,即评估值在[8.0～10.0)为理想状态,评估值在[6.0～8.0)为良好状态,评估值在[4.0～6.0)为一般状态,评估值在[2.0～4.0)为较差状态,评估值在[0.0～2.0)为危险状态。论文利用构建的石油安全评估指标体系,结合统计数据,对中国1992～2002年的石油安全态势进行了定量评估,旨在探讨中国石油安全综合评价方法。评估结果表明:中国在1992年至2002年评价期内的石油安全态势评价值依次为:5.594,5.037,5.616,5.604,5.518,5.642,5.459,5.685,5.557,5.661,5.661。综合评估值得分大致在5.04(1993年)到5.66(2002年)之间(总分在0～10之间),变化幅度为0.62,不超过1。评价期内中国石油安全处于一般状态,石油安全程度基本处于略有上升态势。
National petroleum security （NPS） is highly significant for national economic development and stability of society, so how to judge safety and trend of NPS is an important subject in the field of petroleum security issues. Whereas the complexity of petroleum security and index of appraising system are difficult to quantify, the synthetic method based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process method was adopted in this paper. The authors have divided the situation of NPS into five types according to appraising value, that is, the ideal state （ the apprasing value is between 8. 0 and 10. 0 except for 10. 0）, the good state （ the appraising value is between 6. 0 and 8. 0 except for 8. 0）, the general state （the appraising value is between 4. 0 and 6. 0 except for 6. 0）, the bad state （the appraising value is between 2. 0 and 4. 0 except for 4. 0） and the danger state （ the appraising value is between 0. 0 and 2. 0 except for 2. 0）. Based on the index system for appraising petroleum security and the statistics data, the authors have studied the situation of China＇ s petroleum security during the period of 1992 -2002 form such five factors as resources, economy, politics,transportation and military affairs. Furthermore, the authors will try to discuss the quantitative method by which situation of NPS can be appraised synthetically and scientifically. The appraising result shows that the appraising value of China＇ s NPS from 1992 to 2002 is 5. 594, 5. 037, 5. 616, 5.604, 5.518, 5.642, 5.459, 5.685, 5.557, 5.661 and 5.661, which ranges from 5. 037（1993）to 5. 661 （20（Y2） and its changing extent is less than 1. Therefore, the situation of NPS is in the medium level, and the general security situation improved slightly during the period of time.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期66-72,共7页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70473103和40671056)
安徽师范大学地理特优强专业建设项目
关键词
石油安全
评估
指标体系
中国
petroleum security
appraisal
index system
China
