摘要
空中交通流量受多种因素影响,其中具有一定的随机成分,因此可通过将空中交通流量分为确定成份和随机成份来进行流量预测。确定成份主要由国民经济发展、行政调控政策等因素决定;随机成份主要由气候、石油价格等因素导致。建立的预测模型分为趋势项和随机项两部分,根据大量的数据仿真,采用指数平滑模型描述趋势项;应用正弦函数刻化随机成分。通过利用华东地区年飞行流量的仿真验证,建立的模型能够更为精确地预测空中交通流量(ATF),能为航空各级决策部门制定发展规划提供重要依据。
The air traffic flow （ATF） is influenced by many factors, including some stochastic factors, so the ATF can be forecasted by dividing it into definite component and stochastic component. The definite component affected by the development of country＇s economies and policy adjustment, the stochastic component was influenced by climate and price of petroleum. So the forecasting model which was established was divided into trend part and stochastic part. Through a lot of simulations, the exponential smoothing model was used to describe the trend part, and the sine function was adopted to describe the stochastic part, According to the simulation result of East China region ATF, it explains that this model can obtain a more accuracy forecast in ATF, and it is a basis for decisionn- making body to make development strategies and programming.
出处
《中国民航大学学报》
CAS
2008年第4期59-61,共3页
Journal of Civil Aviation University of China
基金
国家863高技术计划项目(2006AA12A113)
中国民航大学科研基金项目(04-CAUC-20S)
关键词
空中交通流量管理
指数平滑模型
正弦函数
随机预测
air traffic flow management （ATFM）
exponential smoothing method
sine function
stochastic forecasting
