摘要
为明确给出环境承载力的实质内涵"人类活动阈值",利用不确定型多目标优化方法,建立了区域环境承载力优化模型.应用该模型对北京市通州区进行区域战略环境影响评价.结果表明,水环境容量是制约通州区社会经济发展的瓶颈;《通州新城规划》的人口与经济发展目标与其"滨水宜居新城"目标相违,必须削减其人口与经济目标,2010年和2020年适度人口规模分别为44.88～50.39万人和85.29～96.40万人;适度经济规模分别为132.57～182.02亿元和862.9～1141.22亿元.通过加大投资力度,调整投资结构,《通州新城规划》的三次产业结构目标基本可以实现.2010年和2020年三次产业适度的结构分别为(6%～7%):(39%～43%):(51%～54%)与2%:(23%～30%):(68%～75%).为实现这些目标,对于高能耗、高水耗行业(造纸与化工等)应限制其发展,并逐步淘汰.
For definitely giving out actual content of Environmental Carrying Capacity ＂threshold value of human activity＂, utilizing uncertain type multi-objective optimum technique, the regional environmental carrying capacity optimum model was established. The model was applied to regional strategic environmental impact assessment on Tongzhou District Beijing City. The water environmental capacity of the region was the bottleneck to restrict the social and economic development of Tongzhou District. The population and economic development target of Tongzhou New City Plan was disobeyed with its ＂link water suitable habitation New City＂, the population and economic target must be shortened, the suitable population scales in 2010 and 2020 years were 44.88-50.39 ten thousand persons and 85.29-ten thousand persons; the suitable scopes of economic scale were 132.57-182.02 hundred million yuan and 862.9-1141.22 hundred million yuan, through enlarging investment dynamic and adjusting investment structure, ＂Tongzhou New City Plan＂ tertiary industrial structures target could be basically realized, the tertiary industrial structures in 2010 and 2020 years were（6%-7%）：（39%-43%）：（51%-54%） AND 2%：（23%-30%）：（68% -75%） respectively. For realizing these targets those highly energy and water consume industry （such as paper making and chemical engineering ect.） must be constrained in development and gradually cancelled.
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第7期667-672,共6页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家“973”项目(2006CB403403)
关键词
环境承载力
不确定性多目标优化方法
适度人口与经济规模
区域战略环境评价
北京市通州区
environment carrying capacity
uncertain type multi-objective optimum technique
suitable scale of population and economic model
regional strategic environmental impact assessment
Tongzhou District, Beijing City
