摘要
信息技术对船舶导航的影响越来越大,针对导航系统的信息风险评估研究也在逐步深入。风险评估是获取导航系统安全状况的重要手段,风险评估的结果是制定安全解决方案的重要依据。风险评估的关键是寻找一种解决度量问题的方法,以充分利用各领域专家的知识来实现科学、可靠的决策。根据决策方法推理分析,结合用户的实际情况,提出了一种基于AHP和Delphi的船舶导航信息系统风险评估技术。通过Delphi法估算出评估指标的相对重要性,再通过AHP法进行进一步的定量评估。分析表明,该技术可以有效地进行风险评估的决策,具有一定的实用价值。
The information technology is getting more important for ship navigation. Many deep studies are carried out on system information risk assessment for ship navigation. Risk assessment is an important means to get a better understanding for the security status of navigation system and its results are the basis of a security solution. The key of the risk assessment is to find out a measurement method so as to make a full use of different specialists＇ knowledge realizing scientific and reliable decision making. With the inference analysis of decision-making method as well as the analysis of real user＇s situations, a ship navigation information system risk assessment technique based on AHP and Delphi is presented. The relative importance of assessment index is estimated by Delphi, while AHP is applied for a quantitative assessment. This method is a practical and effective way for the decision-making of risk assessment.
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第2期110-113,196,共5页
Navigation of China
关键词
水路运输
层次分析法
船舶导航系统
信息
风险评估
决策
waterway transportation
AHP
ship navigation system
risk assessment
decision making
