摘要
[目的]探讨应用时间序列ARIMA模型进行肺结核发病率预测的可行性,为结核病防治提供科学依据。[方法]对重庆市1997～2005年肺结核发病率建立ARIMA模型,并对预测效果进行评价。[结果]ARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12模型很好地拟合了既往时间段上的发病率序列,对2005年各月发病率的预测值符合实际发病率变动趋势。[结论]ARIMA模型能很好地模拟肺结核发病率的变动趋势,预测效果可信,能为肺结核的防治工作提供科学依据。
[Objective] To explore the feasibility of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average （ARIMA） model to pre, dict the incidence of tuberculosis and to provide Scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis. [ Methods] ARIMA model was established basing on the tuberculosis incidence in Chongqing during 1997,2005 and the prediction effect of ARIMA model was also evaluated. [ Results] Model of ARIMA（1,0,0）×（0,1,1）12 exactly fitted the incidence in the previous months. The fit Values of incidence in 2005 were consistent with the actual data of incidence. [Conclusion] ARIMA model can be used to exactly fit the changes of the incidence of tuberculosis and to predict the incidence in future, which can be the sci- entific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
北大核心
2008年第9期1608-1610,1615,共4页
Modern Preventive Medicine
