摘要
针对中国热带气旋(TropicalCyclone,简称TC)降水的分离问题,利用国家气候中心任福民等提出的客观天气图分析法(Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique,简称OSAT)对2005年影响我国强度达到台风以上的6个TC降水进行了客观分离,并与人工的主观识别方法进行了对比。结果表明,OSAT客观方法由于对TC外围流系最大范围半径D1设置偏大,导致原来的判别测站数比主观方法多,其他系统或TC和其他系统共同作用的降水被包含进来,所以误判率较高,但遗漏少。为了减少误判率,将OSAT方法中的D1根据实况环流场给出,判别准确率得到了提高,但会出现判别结果比主观方法略偏少的现象,原因是TC和其它系统(冷锋、西风槽等)的相互作用结果没有考虑进去。总的来说,对D1的设定由原来根据TC强弱度给出常参数方案组改为根据实况观测、云图等资料获得后,提高了识别效果。使用该客观方法识别TC降水的精确度能满足业务需求,可以投入业务使用。
For partitioning precipitation of tropical cyclone（TC） in China, an Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique（OSAT）was used on six TCs affecting China in 2005. The results were compared with those results using subjective technique. It showed that some station observations caused by other weather systems or interaction between TC and other weather systems were included because the radius D1 of circulation around maximum TC area was set too big, So the distinguish error is high, but missed unlikely. In order to reduce the distinguish error, a method of setting D1 by real-time observations circulation radius and cloud and so on was proposed. Finally the distinguish error was reduced, but missed a little more. The new result showed that rain station numbers partitioned by improved objective technique could be less than that of subjective technique because the effect of interaction between TC and other weather systems （cold front, west wind trough etc. ） was not taken into account. Shortly, the accuracy of partition was improved after D1 was reset by integration of observation data and cloud image and so on instead of intensity of TC. The precision of TC precipitation partitioned by the objective method could be accepted in operation. It could be applied in operation.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第1期94-99,共6页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
中国气象局上海台风研究所基金项目“中国台风降水客观分离方法及其应用研究”资助
关键词
TC降水分离
客观方法
主观方法
业务系统
partitioning of TC precipitation objective technique subjective technique operation system
