摘要
本文首先建立FDI对经常项目及金融与资本项目影响的理论模型,目的是探讨我国国际直接投资流入对国际收支的影响,并通过1982—2006年的统计数据进行实证检验。Johansen协整检验和VAR模型分析发现:FDI流入与经常项目及金融与资本项目之间存在长期均衡关系,国际直接投资的影响较为复杂,直接效应与间接效应并存;VAR模型结果表明FDI流入与经常项目收支之间存在"倒U"型关系,而FDI流入对资本金融项目的响应明显存在时滞。因此,当前为实现国际收支平衡目标,必须调整FDI的流入规模,制定有效的外资引进政策。
The paper firstly establishes a theoretical model to study FDI, capital account and current account, in order to explore the effect of FDI on the Balance of Payments, and then give an empirical testing through statistical data from 1982 to 2006. Through Johansen co-integration test and VAR model, it indicates that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among FDI-flow, the current account and the capital account, and FDI has comparatively complicated influence, such as both direct effect and indirect effect on these accounts. The VAR model result indicates that there is an obvious ＂reversing U＂ relation between current account and the FDI inflow, and the response of capital account to FDI inflow has a time lag behind. Therefore, in order to reach the equilibrium of Balance of Payments, we must adjust the FDI inflow scale, and work out effective foreign capital introducing policy.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第12A期65-78,共14页
Journal of Financial Research
