摘要
企业运作、发展过程是一个复杂的时变动态过程,企业伤亡事故率与这一时变动态过程存在着复杂的非线性关系.利用系统动力学对企业伤亡事故率进行仿真试验,能够充分发挥系统动力学适宜处理高阶次、非线性、多重反馈的时变动态系统的优点.在对企业伤亡事故率产生的系统机制进行了系统动力学分析之后,建立了企业伤亡事故率的系统动力学仿真模型;对某企业进行了仿真试验,进而对仿真试验结果进行了分析.通过试验应用表明,利用系统动力学对企业伤亡事故率进行仿真有效揭示了企业伤亡事故率与企业发展、运作过程的非线性机制,并能够对企业伤亡事故率的发展趋势做出科学预测与分析.
A corporation＇s operation and development is a complicated dynamic process which changing with time. System Dynamic is an advanced theory based on the theory of feedback and methodology of system. It is very suitable to deal with the system changing with time, especially for the system of higher - order, nonlinear or muhy -feedback. System Dynamic simulation for the casualty rate of a corporation was put forward in this paper. The systematic mechanism of casualty rate was analyzed with System Dynamic. Then the System Dynamic simulation model for casualty rate was founded. The simulation test was taken for one petrochemical corporation and the result was studied. It was proved that the nonlinear mechanism between casualty rate and the operation and development of one corporation could be disclosed effectively and the trend of the casualty rate could be forecasted and analyzed scientifically with the simulation.
出处
《河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2007年第5期503-508,共6页
Journal of Henan Polytechnic University（Natural Science）
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关子专题项目(2004BA615A-04-04)
关键词
伤亡事故率
系统动力学
仿真
casualty rate, System Dynamic, simulation
