摘要
区域大型医疗设备配置规划对于合理利用卫生资源,满足人民医疗需求具有重大影响。基于诊疗量和设备诊查次数的比例关系,采用趋势预测法对未来的设备需求量进行基底预测;采用排队论模拟,计算平均等待时间和空闲时间,通过敏感性分析,从而对基底预测量进行修正;结合地理分布及其他政策性因素,可以较科学合理地预测未来一定时期的设备需求量。
Regional planning of expensive medical equipments has great impact on rational use of limited health resources. Based on stable proportional relationship between total amount of medical services and equipment test, this paper adopt trend forecasting to predict baseline CT demand and queuing theory to adjust baseline prediction.
出处
《中国卫生资源》
2007年第5期226-228,共3页
Chinese Health Resources
关键词
趋势预测
排队论
大型医疗设备
Trend forecasting
Queuing theory
Expensive medical equipment
