广东省与东盟农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究被引量：58

Research on the Trade Flow and Trade Potentiality of Agricultural Productsbetween Guang-dong Province and ASEAN ——Based on Gravity Model

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摘要随着"早期收获"计划实施,广东从东盟进口农产品快速增加,但对东盟出口却增长缓慢,甚至出现下滑的不利局面。本文运用引力模型对影响广东农产品出口的因素进行了验证,并对出口东盟农产品流量进行了测算分析。研究表明,广东对东盟农产品出口流量受东盟国家的GDP、人均GDP、距离以及区域贸易制度安排等因素的影响;广东同大多数东盟国家农产品贸易呈现"贸易不足",广东农产品对东盟出口仍有很大的增长空间。 Along with the carrying out of ＂Early Harvest Plan＂, the import of agricultural products from ASEAN to Guang-dong increases rapidly, but the export to ASEAN increases slowly, even descended in some year. This paper analyzes the export of Guangdong＇s agricultural products by means of the gravity model and measures the export potential to ASEAN. The results indicate that the GDP of ASEAN, GDP per capita, space distance and regional trade agreement have significant influence on Guang-dong＇s agricultural export to ASEAN; the trade of agricultural products between Guang-dong and most countries of ASEAN is deficient; the export to ASEAN has a large space of increase.

作者庄丽娟姜元武刘娜

机构地区华南农业大学经济管理学院

出处《国际贸易问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第6期81-86,共6页 Journal of International Trade

基金广东省普通高校人文社科重点研究基地重点项目<广东与东盟国家次区域农产品贸易问题研究>(06JDXM790003)阶段性研究成果。

关键词广东东盟农产品贸易引力模型 Guang-dong ASEAN Trade of agricultural products Gravity model

分类号 F724.72 [经济管理—产业经济]

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