摘要
油田产量变化受多种因素的影响,表现出既有宏观趋势的确定性又有微观波动的随机性,而精确预测油田产量一直是油田开发的重要研究任务,因此,根据灰色预测和马尔柯夫链的基本原理,考虑其各自的特点,构造出预测油田产量的灰色马尔柯夫预测模型。该方法可以优势互补,使得预测结果更加合理可靠。实例表明,该方法预测精度高,能有效预测具有某种变化趋势而随机波动较大的油田产量。
Affected by various factors,the oilfield output pos- sesses the characteristics of macroscopical trend with cer- tainty and microcosmic fluctuation with randomness, while an accurate forecast of oilfield output is of great im- portance for development.Therefore,a grey-Markov forecast model based on the fundamental principles of Grey System and Markov Chain is established,which is mutually complementary in their respective superiority and inferiority and able to bring out more reliable and ra tional forecasting.Application indicates this method is of higher accuracy,and can he applied in the oilfields with certain change trend and big random fluctuation.
出处
《石油地质与工程》
CAS
2007年第3期49-51,54,共4页
Petroleum Geology and Engineering
