摘要
对宁夏20个测站1961—2004年的冬季负积温EOF分析表明,冬季的冷趋势具有明显的大尺度特征,在近40 a逐渐变暖。据累积距平显示,l986年出现了突变,之前,冬季气温偏低,具体表现为冷冬年全部分布在此时段,之后偏暖,90年代以后出现暖冬的频次明显增加。≤0℃持续日数具有明显的年代际变化,2001—2004年比60年代平均减少了13.5 d。在80%保证率下,全区≤0℃持续日数和负积温依地势自北向南增多,引黄灌区最少,中部干旱带次之,南部黄土丘陵区相对最多。
Based on the meteorological data from 20 stations over Ningxia during 1961 and 2004,the negative accumulated temperature was analyzed by using EOF, climatic trend and climatic assuring kate. The results showed that the cold trend in winter had large scale character and the winter gradually warmed up in 44 years. The annual negative accumulated temperature indicated a break in 1986. The winter temperature was relatively low and the cold winter mainly occurred before 1986. After that,the winter tempera- ture was relatively high and the warm winter mainly occurred. The 40℃ duration also had inter-decadal change,the average days during 2001-2004 was 13.5 days fewer than that in 60＇s. Under the 80% assuring rate,the 40 ℃ duration and negative accumulated temperature increased from north to south.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期202-207,共6页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
科技部公益项目"宁夏气候对全球气候变化的响应及其机制"(编号:2004DIB3J121)资助
关键词
负积温
气候变化
EOF特征
Negative accumulated temperature
Climate change
EOF character
