摘要
本文选取1997-2006年的月度数据运用VAR方法,控制了FDI存量和我国加工贸易特征影响后,对贸易收支与人民币实际汇率变动关系进行了动态分析,并得出6大结论。
This paper, using the monthly data from 1997 to 2006, develops a VAR model to estimate the dynamic exchange -rates effects on China＇s trade, controlled the effects of the FDI stock and processing and assembly trade. The estimation results suggest that exchange-rates effects on China＇s trade are significant, J-curve effect is also significant within 5 months, exchange-rates effects on exports and imports have the same trend, and income effect on trade is more than price effect etc.
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第3期57-63,共7页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
关键词
贸易收支
人民币实际汇率
J曲线效应
trade surplus
real exchange rate of RENMINBI
J-curve effect
