摘要
探究分析了影响我国大豆进口量的诸多因素,包括国内大豆产量、大豆油及豆粕的需求量、国内市场价格等,据此建立了多元线性回归模型并进行定量分析,对模型进行了多重共线性的诊断与处理,自相关与异方差的检验。研究结果表明,国内大豆产量与大豆进口量呈高度的负相关,即国内大豆产量增产1%,进口量就会减少0.93%;大豆油与豆粕的产量与大豆进口量呈高度正相关,即大豆油与豆粕的产量每上升1%,我国大豆进口量将上升1.23%。对如何扭转我国大豆进口量剧增的局面提出了政策建议。
The impact on Chinese soybean import was analyzed, including the domestic soybean yield, soybean oil demand, the domestic market price and so on. A multivariate linear regression model for quantitative analysis was established and the model was studied with multiple linear diagnosis and treatment, and heteroskedasticity test. The results showed that domestic soybean yield was highly negative relevant to soybean imports. When domestic soybean output increased by 1%, the imports would decrease by 0.93 %. At the same time, soybean oil and meal output was highly postive relevant to soybean imports, and soybean oil and meal output increased by 1% ,the soybean imports increased by 1.23%.
出处
《中国油脂》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第3期7-10,共4页
China Oils and Fats
关键词
大豆进口量
影响因素
多元线性回归分析
soybean imports
influence factors
multivariate linear regression analysis
