摘要
通过对中国1978—2004年进出口贸易和国内生产总值GDP之间的关系进行Granger因果检验,结果表明进口和GDP之间存在着显著的单向因果关系,同时进口是出口的格兰杰原因,而出口不是进口的格兰杰原因;作广义脉冲响应分析与方差分解,结果显示进口对GDP的影响要远大于后者对前者的影响,同时GDP对出口的脉冲响应大于对进口的脉冲响应。这说明进口对GDP有着显著的单向作用,所以当前不断增长的进口走势对GDP的增长具有决定性作用。
The Granger causality test were used to study the relation between import-export trade and the GDP in China from 1978 to 2004. The Granger causality test shows that there is oneway remarkable Granger causality relationship from import to GDP. By using generalized impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition ,the results show that the impact of import on the GDP is much larger than that of the GDP on import ,at the same time the generalized impulse response of the GDP is much larger than that of the GDP on import trade, furthermore the results also indicate that the import trade strongly affects the GDP. Therefore the import increasingly tread strongly affects the growth of the GDP.
出处
《宝鸡文理学院学报（社会科学版）》
2006年第5期85-88,共4页
Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences：Social Science Edition
