摘要
应用灰色系统预测理论，建立芜湖市耕地预测模型GM（1，1），利用1996-2003年耕地面积建立时间数列，对其求解、检验、预测，可得到今后数年的芜湖市耕地面积数量，对合理利用耕地资源、实现耕地的可持续发展有重要意义。最后并对灰色系统模型应用于耕地面积预测作了可行性分析，研究表明：①灰色模型适合于任何一个无规律到有规律的系统。②耕地数据在主导因素——政府政策没有太大的变化的情况下，它本身就是一个理想的灰色数列。③应用灰色模型作耕地面积预测为政府做耕地长期规划提供了一个较精确的预算方案。
Applying the grey prediction theory to establish model GM（1,1） of the cultivated land of Wuhu City , and set up time sequence using 1996-2003 cultivated land area ,and then caculate it, check out ,forecast, at last the cultivated land area in the future in Wuhu City is gained, which makes it of significance of using land resources reasonably and realizing the sustainable development of cultivated land. Lastly the calculation result proved that this method is feasible and effective,the result shows,① gray model is propitious to any system from rule to no rule.②Cultivated land data is on the condition of steady leading factors - the government policy has made great change, and it itself is also an ideal gray sequence. ③It offers a better budget plan that the appliance of gray model forecasting makes lasting cultivated land project.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第5期14-16,共3页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然基金项目(40571162)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(050450401)
关键词
灰色模型
耕地
预测
芜湖市
gray model
cultivated land
forecast
Wuhu City
