摘要
对中国大陆1971年以来发生的5级以上地震年度重复的空间特征进行分析研究,结果表明当中国大陆发生1个5级以上地震后,下一年度在该地震震中周围某一半径范围内,再次发生5级以上地震的概率非常高。利用统计研究结果,根据某一年发生的5级以上地震对下一年度进行地震预测,并对预测效能进行R值检验。文中还对1990年以来基于地震重复性的年度地震预测R值和我国实际年度地震预测R值进行比较,结果表明该方法是一种有效的年度地震预测方法,可以作为我国年度地震危险区的划分依据之一。
Statistic analysis about space features of annual repeating of earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 on the Chinese continent since 1971 have been made. It showed that the possibility of earthquake with M ≥ 5.0 occurred round the earthquake for the last year is relatively high. According to the results of the above-mentioned, we have predicted earthquake of the next year with M≥ 5.0 and evaluated the efficiency of annual earthquake prediction. Finally, our evaluation of R-value and the fact R-value have been compared during 1990 - 2005 on the Chinese continent. It shows that this method is an effective means for annual earthquake prediction and one of arguments in determination of annual seismic risk area.
出处
《中国地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第3期311-320,共10页
Earthquake Research in China
基金
国家科技攻关重点项目"强地震短期预测与救灾技术研究"[2004BA601B01-01-04]资助。
关键词
地震重复性
年度地震预测
R值评分
年度地震危险区
Repeating of earthquake Annual prediction of earthquake Evaluation of R-value Annual seismic risk area
