摘要
针对“一旦石油用完,人类的社会经济活动将如何延续”的问题,提出相应的短期和中长期战略措施,重点分析了天然气水合物、太阳能、核聚变能、月球资源等石油替代能源开发的进展情况和应用推广前景。分析认为,随着石油价格的逐步上升,各种替代能源将会陆续进入市场,进而呈现一个能源多元化竞争的局面。最后究竟哪一种能源在市场上占有优势,将取决于先进科学技术首先在哪一个新能源领域取得新的突破。只有加大力度研发石油的替代能源,争取在地球石油用尽前实现替代能源尤其是太阳能和核聚变应用的“商业化”,能源的可持续发展方有可能得到根本的解决。
In response to the issue of how humanity continues social and economic activity once oil is used up, the article examines the short- and long-term strategies that might be followed to address the problem, with special focus on the prospects for developing and applying such alternative energy as gas hydrate, solar power, nuclear power and lunar resources. The article comes to the conclusion that, as the oil price keeps going up, alternative resources will rush into the energy market, diversifying the sources of energy available for use in the future. And which one of the new sources will play a dominant role in the energy market much depends upon where new breakthroughs will first be made. Only by devoting increased effort to the R&D of alternative energy and realizing commercial application of solar energy and nuclear power before the oil on earth is used up can the issue of sustainable energy development be well-enough addressed.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2006年第8期7-11,共5页
International Petroleum Economics
