摘要
根据灰色系统理论,联系乌鲁木齐市大气环境的实际状况,建立了精度检验为一级的灰色预测模型,经模型检验其精度完全满足要求。并对乌鲁木齐大气中的SO2值进行了预测分析,结果表明,乌鲁木齐市大气中SO2值呈上升的趋势,在未来几年中,乌鲁木齐市大气中SO2的预测值超过国家三级标准值,即SO2年均值≤0.10mg/m3,这种发展趋势应引起有关部门的关注。
According to the theory of grey system and the actual situation of the atmosphere environment in Urumqi, a grey forecast model with the first grade of precision was set up and its precision was examined that the model completely to answer the purpose. And the value of SO2 in the atmosphere in Urumqi was predicted and analysed. The results showed that the value of SO2 in the atmosphere in Urumqi was assumed the rise tendency, in the future several years, the forecast value of SO2 in the atmosphere in Urumqi will be exceeded the national three levels of standard values, namely SO2 year average concentration ≤0.10 mg/m^3, this kind of development tendency will be supposed to arouse interest of relational department.
出处
《云南地理环境研究》
2006年第4期27-30,共4页
Yunnan Geographic Environment Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043503)
国家自然科学基金项目(40265002)
