摘要
预测技术走向是一件很困难的事情。本文介绍了TRIZ理论及其在技术预测方面使用的“S曲线”方法。即通过对技术成熟度的预测,判断出是否对现有技术进行优化,还是开发新的核心技术。通过案例分析,详细叙述了数据的采集、数据库的建立、数据处理及预测方法。
It＇s difficult to forecast technological changes. The article introduce TRIZ. TRIZ methods are applied to assess the maturity of a technical system with ＂S-Curve＂. With this information, a decision is made to optimize existing technologies or to develop new core technology. A case study is presented to show how to collect and process the data and how to set up database.
出处
《机电产品开发与创新》
2006年第3期18-19,47,共3页
Development & Innovation of Machinery & Electrical Products
