摘要
指标体系评价农业水资源可持续利用(Sustainab le Utilization of Agricu lturalW ater Resources,SUAWR),能较好地涵盖SUAWR内涵各方面信息。但指标数过多,易产生指标间信息重叠现象,使问题复杂化;指标数过少,损失过多信息,易产生错误评价结果。因子分析法能用较少的综合主成分提取各指标的有效信息,从各SUAWR空间分异的影响因素中,析出主导因素,简化复杂系统可持续发展能力空间分异的分析。研究表明,东北地区SUAWR大体上表现为由北、东北、东三个方向呈弧形向内由强变弱,其主导因素是水资源丰度、生态环境保育水资源能力、水资源利用效益。这些因素的测度指标中,与本区SUAWR地域分异明显相关的有:耕地均水资源量、耕地均生长季降水量、年蒸发量与年降水量差值等水资源丰度指标,干旱指数、径流系数等生态环境保育基础指标,及水田比例、单方灌溉水水稻产量等指标。分析表明,该区SUAWR的全面改善关键在于SUAWR人为影响因素的调节。
Agricultural Water Resources system is an intricate socio-economy ecosystem, thus, factors affecting Sustainable Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources （SUAWR） is complicated. Intricate connotation of SUAWR can only be assessed by applying indicators system（IS） properly. Being too many indicators in indicators system to assess SUAWR, it will be complicated due to information overlap of indicators. While, if deleting indicators at random, information reflecting SUAWR will be cut, and evaluation results will be wrong. Factor Analysis is a rather well method in reducing redundance information. The magistral information can be separated from numerous Factors effecting on SUAWR spatial variation by factor Analysis, thereby, analysis of spatial variation of SUAWR will be simplified. Study shows that spatial variation pattern of SUAWR in Northeast China displays as capacity of SUAWR decreasing inwards as an arc from North, Northeast and East on the whole. The dominant factors influencing the spatial variation pattern are water resources, ability of eco-environment reserving and accommodating water resources, and income from water resources use in Northeast China. The indicators reflecting the three dominant factors and being distinctly correlative to the spatial variation pattern are water resources quantity and crop season rainfall per hectare of tilth, gap between average annual rainfall and average annual evaporation, aridity index, runoff coefficient, the proportion of paddy field to tilth, rice yield per stere of irrigation water. According to SUAWR contribution of the 7 principal components retrieved from indicators system by factor analysis, the key of entire improvement of SUAWR of the whole evaluating area depends on adjustment of anthropogenic activities to lessen bad human impact on SUAWR.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第3期284-291,共8页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目课题Ⅱ:区域农业水资源时空分异规律与高效利用途径(KZCX1-SW-19-1-02)资助
